50 BTC which originated from a block 11 years ago on February 9th, 2009 made a move around noon today in block 631081.

10 BTC appear to run through a mixer being split into smaller units spread across many wallets, while the remaining 40 BTC ended up in wallet 1BzN95J72BLBafwgZiZZvM9s7Wj2bxzA6m

As a result, the industry is stirring with speculation that Satoshi Nakamoto may have just sent bitcoin from his not-so-secret stash of bitcoin estimated to be the size of a small mountain, or if patoshi research substantiates into reliable data, a large hill.

However, this does not appear to be consistent with probability and the 50 units of bitcoin are more plausibly the property of an early miner. This could and may well be Satoshi's, however, did not come from any of the known Satoshi wallets nor does it appear to be what would have been expected if Satoshi would decide to do such a thing.

The latter being one important fact. It is presumed that from block 0 (genesis block) through block 36288, a large portion of block rewards (50 bitcoin at the time) went to Satoshi himself since he would have been the only miner available at the time, however, this simply isn't accurate.  

The problem with this assumption is that proof exists indicating that as early as January 3rd, 2009, there were others at least connected to the blockchain network, if not individually mining as well. 

Figure 1 - January 3rd, 2009 bitcoin Screenshot

The above screenshot (Figure 1), bitcointalk.org user Deepceleron shows at least 3 connections on January 3rd, 2009, a number that has continued to grow non-stop ever since. 

Probably Not Satoshi

Whereas anything is possible, the above data alone would equate to a 33% chance of the 50 bitcoins sent being those of Satoshi and a greater than 66% of them not being his and that was on January 3rd, 2009. The coins in question were actually mined on February 2nd, 2009 by which time many additional miners were connected to the blockchain network. 

There's no telling how many people were actually mining at that point, but this author can verify that there were several and in 2009, there were no ASICs, there were no FPGAs, and there were no GPUs being used to mine bitcoin. One could mine bitcoin efficiently with nothing more than an old computer and an internet connection.

Whereas not provable either way without the aide of Satoshi himself, or themselves, the chances of the 50 bitcoins from block 3654 belonging to Satoshi are very low. 

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